Like most people from planet Earth, I rarely agree with Aaron Rodgers… other than feeling the need to sit in silent darkness after a long summer of entertaining my kids.
But with the 2024 NFL season kicking off this week, I can’t help but share some sentiments with the New York Jets’ veteran quarterback.
Rodgers, who enters Year 20 in the NFL, has a calm and patient approach to Week 1. That’s kind of how I feel, entering my 20th NFL season with Covers.
It’s not a lack of urgency or excitement, but more a controlled confidence that can only come with those years of service. While the young guys work themselves into a frenzy for the first full slate of “real” NFL action since January, I enter the opening week with calmness and clear eyes.
I know the NFL season is a grind. I don’t need to enter “grind mode” to get up for it, nor do I need to tweet in ALL CAPS about my excitement or scream into my phone with feigned enthusiasm for an Instagram audience. Save that energy for those late Sunday nights chasing opening lines.
Let’s just snap the f—–g ball on 2024 and get going on another season of NFL Underdogs picks and predictions.
Last year: 28-30-2 ATSLast six years: 181-164-3 ATS
NFL Week 1 picks and predictions
- Jets +4.5
- Titans +4
- Steelers +3.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Jets (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers pick
Since we’re on the topic of Aaron Rodgers, his New York Jets are catching as many as +4.5 points at San Francisco for Monday Night Football in Week 1.
This was a spread that opened as big as 49ers -6 back in the spring and dipped to as low as -3.5 before San Francisco sorted out contract disputes with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams at the 11th Hour.
The Niners offense has those key pieces back but hasn’t had many reps together before Week 1, and now takes on what many analysts rank as the top defense in the NFL.
New York is great at all three levels and has excellent intel into Kyle Shanahan’s schemes from head coach and former San Fran defensive coordinator Robert Salah, whose stop units had to practice against Shanahan’s sneaky system every day during his time in the Bay Area.
As for Rodgers’ readiness, it is a bit of a question mark, but we’ll give the two-time MVP the benefit of the doubt. He’s set up to succeed, playing behind a Top 5 offensive line and surrounded by plenty of playmakers.
The savvy veteran has also practiced against Gang Green’s top-tier defense all summer long, finishing with solid reviews and stats collected by beat reporters. As New York proved last year, this team doesn’t need Rodgers to find his MVP form. It just needs him to be better than Zach Wilson. Not that tough a task.
PICK: New York Jets +4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans (+4) at Chicago Bears pick
The Chicago Bears buzz has been ringing in our ears all offseason, starting with the selection of No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and continuing on through the team’s appearance in HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series.
Chicago sits as large as a 4-point home favorite for this meeting with Tennessee in Week 1, marking just the fourth time the Bears have laid more than a field goal in the past four seasons.
There’s plenty of hot air puffing up expectations in the Windy City and I’m buying back that love with a Titans team that made some massive – and necessary – moves this offseason.
On top of replacing Mike Vrabel with Brian Callahan at head coach, Tennessee added skill players in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. That sets the table for second-year QB Will Levis to succeed and, for what it’s worth, his preseason performances were positive.
The biggest change for Tennessee comes on defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson dialing up the intensity and boosting the depth chart with guys like L’Jarius Sneed, Quandre Diggs, Chido Awuzie, Kenneth Murray, Jamal Adams, and Ernest Jones.
The Titans will come after the Bears’ rookie QB, who tends to hold on to the ball a little longer than he should, leaving Williams to throw rushed or errant passes into the teeth of an underrated secondary.
PICK: Tennessee Titans +4 (-113 at BetRivers)
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons pick
For the fourth straight season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are Week 1 underdogs. And for the fourth straight season, they’re among my column picks for the season openers.
Pittsburgh is a field goal pup against a Falcons franchise in reset mode. The hiring of Raheem Morris as head coach and the investment in Kirk Cousins at QB has a lot of heat coming out of the ATL in 2024, but the Steelers’ always-steady defense is a tough task right out of the chute.
The Black and Yellow are projected to again rank among the league’s elite stop units, headlined by the game-changing play of T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh rarely had all its defensive stars healthy at the same time last season, but when Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are on the field together, good things happen.
The franchise put solid pieces around those veterans this offseason, bringing in Patrick Queen, DeShon Elliott, and Donte Jackson. According to many pundits, the 2024 Steelers defense looks better than last year’s group that finished sixth in defensive DVOA and seventh in EPA allowed per play.
Tomlin’s team is always within striking distance and holds its own in one-score games, with the future HoF coach boasting a 29-13-1 ATS record in those nail-biters the past four years.
Let’s also not forget Tomlin’s success as an underdog, owning an incredible 55-31-4 ATS record (63%) as a pup since 2007.
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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